According to a February 2024 study by Quanta Technology, the PJM Interconnection power grid, a regional transmission organization that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia, faces possible issues with two key indicators of grid reliability unless steps are taken immediately.

PJM is the nation’s largest grid operator, providing power to 65 million people. If action isn’t taken, 14 million homes in its region risk losing power.

The study, “Ensuring Reliability: A Case Study of the PJM Power Grid,” updates a previous study conducted in 2018, which revealed violations of reliability criteria. The new study sounds the alarm on PJM’s resource adequacy and transmission security.

One of the issues is the premature retirement of dispatchable energy sources such as coal plants, which are being replaced by less dependable sources of electricity. More than one-third of the country’s coal fleet has retired, with another one-third having already announced plans to retire within the next five years. By the end of 2028, more than 60,000 megawatts from coal will need to be replaced by another source.

“This new study illustrates the mounting challenges that PJM and other grid operators face as dependable sources of electricity, especially coal-fired power plants, continue to retire at an alarming rate,” said Michelle Bloodworth, president and CEO, America’s Power.

Coal makes up one quarter of PJM’s installed generating capacity. Losing coal sources, in conjunction with increasing demand largely resulting from the computer technology industry, has put electricity supply in jeopardy. Near-future retirement of fossil fuel sources could lead to load shedding at PJM.

PJM isn’t the only power grid in danger. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s 2023 “Long-Term Reliability Assessment,” more than two-thirds of the country is at risk of electricity shortages.

The Quanta study includes recommendations for grid operators to avoid shut-downs:

• Modify reliability-must-run agreements to keep power plants from retiring until replacement generating capacity is in place.
• Identify and value all attributes, such as fuel security, necessary to maintain grid reliability.

The study also suggests that EPA rules should be crafted to avoid reliability problems and that a better approach be created to ensure the gas/electric coordination essential to improving the dependability of natural gas to generate electricity.

To protect electricity consumers, Bloodworth said that dependable power sources should not be shut down “until equally dependable and affordable power sources have been added to the grid.”