Electricity prices will continue to increase in 2026 as demand continues to rise—particularly in Texas and surrounding states that are building more data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released in December 2025.
The EIA expects electricity sales to end-customers in the United States to increase 2.6% in 2026, after an expected increase of 2.4% in 2025. In 2024, sales rose 2.6%. Electricity sales will rise in nearly all regions in 2025 and 2026, but growth is particularly concentrated in the West South Central region, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas.
In that region, electricity sales are expected to grow 4.4% in 2025 and by 9.2% in 2026. These increases contribute 34% of the growth in U.S. electricity sales in 2025 and 66% of the growth in in 2026.
“Much of the growth in this region is due to rising electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities that are coming online, or are expected to come online, in the regional market that is managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which is located within the broader West South Central region,” according to the report.
The EIA expects sales of electricity to commercial customers in the West South Central region to rise by 6% in 2025 and 17% in 2026, accounting for 61% of the expected nationwide growth in electricity sales next year. The agency expects electricity sales to industrial customers in the region to grow by 4% in 2025 and 11% in 2026, accounting for 81% of the nationwide sales to the industrial sector growth next year. EIA’s expectations for growth in electricity sales in this region are consistent with ERCOT’s forecasts of load in the years to come.
Likewise, increases in wholesale electricity prices in ERCOT drive EIA’s forecast increases in overall U.S. wholesale electricity prices next year, according to the report.
The EIA expects that the load-weighted average of the 11 regional wholesale prices the agency tracks will be $47 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2025, which is 23% higher than the 2024 average. The agency expects this price to rise to $51/MWh in 2026, driven mostly by the ERCOT North pricing hub, where EIA forecasts the wholesale electricity to increase 45% in 2026 after rising 21% in 2025.
“Natural gas prices tend to be the biggest determinant of power prices, among numerous other factors that typically influence the wholesale power price,” the agency wrote. “But in 2026, the increase in power prices in ERCOT tends to reflect large hourly spikes in the summer months due to high demand combined with relatively low supply in this region.”
Among the other EIA energy metrics, the agency also tracks carbon dioxide emissions. The EIA forecasts U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions to increase by 1.8% in 2025, followed by a decrease of 0.7% in 2026.
“CO2 emissions from coal, natural gas and petroleum products all rise in 2025,” the agency wrote. “Decreases in 2026 occur mostly from coal, with smaller decreases from petroleum products, which offset emissions increases from natural gas. The largest changes in emissions for both years are attributable to shifting coal consumption for power generation.”
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KUEHNER-HEBERT is a freelance writer based in Running Springs, Calif. She has more than three decades of journalism experience. Reach her at [email protected].
