The Affordable Care Act (ACA) has seen its share of battles since President Barack Obama signed it into law five years ago, and many of the sticking points have been about the cost of the program. Since becoming a law, however, the projected costs have diminished significantly.


In January, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) projected the cost of the ACA would be $1.43 trillion through 2025. But, in March, those entities revised the projection to be $142 billion (11 percent) less over the next 10 years. It was the third downward revision in the program’s projected costs.


The CBO said the main reason the program will cost less than anticipated is that about 3 million fewer people than expected will sign up by 2025, and the CBO said there are two reasons for the lower-than-expected turnout. First, the CBO stated that insurance premiums are rising slower than originally anticipated. Second, other predictions aren’t exactly panning out. The CBO said it expects fewer people to sign up for Medicaid and subsidized insurance in the ACA’s marketplace. More people than expected already had insurance before the law took effect, and fewer companies than projected canceled employee insurance programs.


The CBO said that the cost of subsidies for insurance on the state and federal marketplaces, which is considered the focus of the law, will be 20 percent lower than projected.


The lower cost is good news for the embattled law, but all of it is potentially moot, pending the outcome of King v. Burell, a Supreme Court case that is challenging the ACA.