In August 2014, the U.S. Congress asked that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provide an analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed Clean Power Plan. It would require states to develop methods to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emission rates. While proponents may be incredulous at the thought that the proposed regulations need justifying, others argue that the regulations may be excessive, unfair to business, and even unnecessary.


In May 2015, the EIA released its report in response to the request from Congress. “Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan” expands on the EIA’s own “Annual Energy Outlook 2015,” which was released in April.


The additional data provided in the May analysis projects a strong case that the plan will reach its goal of cutting emissions 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. It notes that CO2 emissions from the power sector already declined by 363 million metric tons between 2005 and 2013, due to a decline in coal’s generation share and the growing use of natural gas and renewables. However, the data shows that those reductions will decrease if the plan is not implemented. On the other hand, if the plan is implemented, emissions will reduce anywhere from 484–625 million metric tons, representing a 29–36 percent reduction relative to 2005 emissions.


The report notes that the plan will lead to greater reductions of CO2 emissions. For example, generation will switch from coal-fired to natural gas-fired generation as the predominant strategy for complying with the plan. Renewables will play an expanding role, and more coal-fired plants will be retired. The report projects retirements equal to about 90 gigawatts of generating capacity by 2040, more than double the amount of retirements projected in a scenario without the plan.


The EPA expects to finalize the proposed Clean Power Plan this summer.