The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) projects increased demand for electricity in the coming years, driven by A.I. data centers, heavy industry, population growth and adoption of home heat pumps and electric vehicles. Within the next 10 years, U.S. peak electricity demand in the summer and winter months is forecast to grow by more than 20%.

In stark contrast to rising demand, generating capacity is expected to decrease as the U.S. power grid moves from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. This discrepancy puts nearly 160 million Americans at high risk of blackouts, according to a recent report from NERC.

In NERC’s January 2026 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, Climate Crisis 247 identifies regions considered at high risk of power failures in the next five years. The assessment includes the affected states, the estimated number of residents and projected changes in electricity supply and demand.

Most states on the list are concentrated along the Gulf and in the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Pacific Northwest because these are areas where power demand is projected to grow and generating capacity is projected to decline by the year 2030, primarily due to the retirement of coal-burning power plants.

Without corrective action, more frequent and widespread grid failures could begin as early as 2028 in the places on this list. 

MRO-MISO, which includes a customer base of approximately 45 million people within all or parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin, has a high risk of power outages by 2028. The primary driver of demand growth is data centers. It has a project change in generating capacity of +4.3% (+5,573 megawatts [MW]) from 2026–2030.

RF-PJM, which includes a customer base of approximately 67 million people in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia, has a high risk of power outages by 2029. Its annual electricity demand growth rate 1.6%, driven by data centers, transportation electrification and heat pumps. It has a projected change in generating capacity of –2.6% (–4,886 MW) from 2026-2030.

Texas RE-ERCOT, which includes approximately 27 million customers in Texas, has a high risk of power outages by 2029. It has an annual electricity demand growth rate of 5.6%, with that demand primarily driven by data centers, industry, demographic changes and cryptocurrency. Its projected change in generating capacity from 2026-2030 is +4.6% (+4,598 MW).

WECC Northwest, which includes approximately 13.6 million customers in Montana, Oregon and Washington, as well as parts of northern California and northern Idaho, has a high risk of power outages by 2029. Its annual electricity demand growth rate of 2.7% is driven by data centers, transportation electrification, demographic changes and industry. It has a projected change in generating capacity of –1.5% (–577 MW) from 2026-2030.

WECC Basin, with an approximate customer base of approximately 5.4 million people in Utah, southern Idaho and part of western Wyoming, has a high risk of power outages by 2029. It has an annual electricity demand growth rate of 2.5%, driven by data centers and industry. Its projected change in generating capacity from 2026-2030 is –3.4% (–589 MW).