Thomas Edison got it wrong. He predicted that everyone who pinned their hopes on the future of alternating current was just wasting their time. Meanwhile, plenty of Edison’s early contemporaries predicted that, while electrical lighting would become popular, the main source of residential illumination would remain gas lamps. Fast-forward to 1954, when the head of the Atomic Energy Commission inaccurately envisioned the dawning of an era in which electric power would be “too cheap to meter.” Also, how easily we forget prophecy that the electric grid would disastrously shut down as computers crashed from “Y2K” programming problems when 1999 turned to 2000.


However, what about yesterday’s forecasters who were fairly correct in their predictions of the future? They are seldom celebrated as much as those who miscalculated future developments; yet they deserve notoriety, too.


Short of a decade ago, following the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the U.S. construction industry ratcheted down considerably, and electrical construction tracked right with it. Market conditions in most places left everyone in the business looking for solutions.


In the midst of the doldrums, Dr. Thomas E. Glavinich—one of our favorite industry experts—fearlessly stood up and forecast that “a perfect storm is heading for the building industry,” in the September 2008 issue of Electrical Contractor. He went on to describe factors that had been around for decades but only recently had come into perfect alignment to inspire integrated solutions to the requirements of energy conservation, environmental protection and economic conditions. Glavinich freely speculated that these solutions would provide opportunity for electrical contractors (ECs) to become “integrators” through design, installation, programming and maintenance of systems.


He was right. Such opportunities continue to emerge for ECs, especially in the area of service work. We have discussed some of these opportunities in previous columns, as well. One of the most talked-about future directions of the industry—the general concept of “resilience”—draws on issues that Glavinich identified. “Resilience” has become the leading buzzword in prominent circles in the discussion of future infrastructure, real estate, housing, and even child-rearing.


True to forecast, the amount of work in the maintenance, service and repair (MSR) sector has jumped since the recent recession. In 2010, Electrical ­Contractor’s Profile of the Electrical Contractor showed MSR with combined industry revenue at 38 percent (up from 31 percent in 2008), while the average percentage from new construction had dropped substantially to 34 percent since 2008. In 2012, MSR revenue climbed to 42 percent of industry revenue while new construction dropped again to 31 percent. In 2014, with some recovery happening in new construction, the topline report shows the same EC industry revenue percentages as 2012.


Industry trends in the electrical contracting industry are clear. The last decade indicates a steadily rising demand for service work—performing maintenance, repairs, warranties and upgrades. While conventionally minded electrical contractors historically have been trapped in the mindset of relentlessly pursuing new construction projects as a means of generating heaped-up backlog, smart operators have seized service work to boost their bottom line, build a customer base, and enjoy recurring revenues. They have invested in the development of their service delivery. Fortunately for service-oriented ECs, opportunities continue to grow ­geometrically—as predicted.


Of course, service-related competencies are not the same as those for new construction projects and require a different business model to be sustainable.


Three essentials to success in electrical service operations are gospel: First is the correct organizational structure that appropriately separates the service unit into its own entity within the company. Second is the importance of nonstop attention to staffing to create a cadre of service-oriented people both in the field and in the office. Third is the need for systems that will enable service delivery to be “sustainable” in every meaning of the word. The results are predictable.


We tip our hats to Glavinich (a f­orward-thinking leader that the industry lost in 2014). There are boundless opportunities heading into the prosperous “perfect storm” that he foresaw. Meanwhile, as direct current becomes an ever-increasing phenomenon in electrical systems, people may read Edison’s devotion to it as a sign that he has finally been proven right. Instead, the larger lesson here is that nothing is more constant than change. Smart contractors will always stay tuned to predictions.