Greater demand for electricity due to increases in population, industrial activity and A.I.-driven data centers will likely increase the need for load shedding by independent system operators—even in the fall and spring “shoulder seasons,” according to the June 2025 report, “The U.S. Reliability Challenge and the Value of Flexibility,” by Aurora Energy Research.

“In an evolving power system, the reliability challenge is year-round, driven by temperature volatility, outage risks, and an increasing need for flexibility,” according to the report.

Outages actually peak during shoulder months, as ISOs typically take those times to perform maintenance on their aging infrastructure to maximize summer and winter availability, according to the report. However, these periods of elevated outages also coincide with weather volatility, where a sudden heating or cooling need can rapidly ramp up demand. Combined thermal outages and weather volatility have pushed shoulder-month reserves as low as summer levels.

In response, ISOs have had to shed loads. Indeed, last May over the Memorial Day weekend, the combination of high temperatures, planned and unplanned generation outages, and limited transfer capability led to Midcontinent Independent System Operator ordering a 600-megawatt load-shedding in New Orleans from 4 to 8 p.m., with more than 100,000 customers losing power as a result.

To lower the risk of load shedding and power outages during periods of high demand, data centers with large loads should shift consumption to other times or other geographies, and use backup generators and batteries, according to the report.

“Large load flexibility could have a critical role in ensuring system reliability, with data center load projected to reach 35 gigawatts by 2030,” the report states.

For example, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas in May 2024 issued a Weather Watch due to unseasonably high temperatures, elevated maintenance outages and the potential for reduced reserves. In response, batteries discharged up to 2.2 GW and peakers supplied 6.9 GW, helping bridge the gap during peak demand—especially in the evening as solar generation declined.

Demand response from data centers could also reduce the need for new generation by 10 GW in 2030, according to the report. Those with large loads have an incentive to be flexible: they would be able to achieve a faster interconnection to the grid.