The LED revolution ignited a wave of lighting upgrades while unlocking new capabilities in optics, control and data. With the majority of the installed lighting stock in the United States being LED, where are the big opportunities?

A significant portion of the installed lighting base has not yet been converted.

The Department of Energy estimated that nearly one-half of the light sources in commercial buildings was LED in 2020. If 30% of light sources today are still legacy sources, that is half a billion lamps.

The challenge, of course, is that these lamps are installed in buildings with owners resistant to making the switch. They must be educated about the benefits of saving energy, refreshing their lighting system and improving lighting quality. In 10 states—California, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington—compact and linear fluorescent lamps are being banned due to their mercury content, with rules going into effect between 2024 and 2029.

Armed with information about the particular rules, contractors can engage customers about their options, which will involve LEDs, as they have no embodied mercury. As these rules typically ban sale but not use, owners may continue using covered lamps for as long as their stocks last, but at some point, they will need to begin to transition to the alternatives. The net effect of these rules will be to force late adopters in the existing buildings market in these states to make the switch to LED lighting.

In commercial buildings that will need to upgrade, owners will have a choice of retrofitting existing luminaires with LED replacement lamps or retrofit kits, or installing new LED luminaires. Each approach has its pros and cons. Replacement lamps are regarded as the lower-cost path, while retrofit kits and new luminaires with lighting controls generally optimize energy savings while refreshing lighting quality and space appearance.

Existing LED installations are emerging as a new upgrade market.

Current LED technology is far more efficient and capable than the first-generation products installed by early adopters, which are steadily aging out and approaching the mortality modes of high lumen depreciation, color shift and burnouts. This presents an emerging market for LED-to-LED upgrades, with the hottest prospects being first-generation products installed in applications with long operating hours and higher energy costs.

The customer gains an opportunity to generate new energy savings, adopt a higher level of lighting quality and preempt product failures. For contractors, it is an opportunity to produce fresh sales from older customers and create new customers.

As an example of efficiency improvement, consider the DesignLights Consortium’s (DLC) technical requirements, which became more stringent over the years as LED technology developed. Comparing 2015’s DLC 3.1 to current 5.1 requirements, 4-foot TLEDs underwent a 20% improvement in efficacy (lumens/W), while 2x4 troffers saw a 29% improvement and high-bays a 50% improvement.

As utility commercial lighting rebate programs see lighting energy savings diminish, they are starting to get onboard with LED-to-LED upgrades. In 2025, 6% of rebate programs offered an explicit prescriptive rebate for LED-to-LED upgrades, most introduced in that year, according to BriteSwitch. This is expected to grow. Otherwise, there is potential to leverage custom and midstream rebates for this purpose.

Individual markets add up to significant opportunity.

Beyond energy savings, understanding applications and how lighting quality can be optimized can add value to projects, based on the proposition that good lighting is a cost-bearing utility and an asset. Today’s LED lighting offers enhanced optical control, long life and field-­adjustability (color/light output and optics). Classrooms, particularly those serving children with special needs, can benefit from tunable-white lighting. Residences serving the elderly can benefit from good lighting design and circadian lighting. Horticultural lighting continues to show promise as an upgrade market. Contractors can benefit by staying abreast with what’s new while getting back to basics on the elements of lighting quality and how to deliver it.

Advanced lighting controls are key to delivering added value.

The hottest trend in lighting is integrated control providing energy code compliance, manual dimming and potentially color tuning and data. From deep energy savings and decarbonization, to adding flexibility, to unlocking data applications and integration, advanced lighting controls will continue to grow in importance in the lighting market. 

Contractors can benefit by educating themselves on new networked lighting control systems, which can reduce lighting energy consumption by nearly half), wireless controls, luminaire-level lighting controls and integration. At the building level, networked lighting controls offer global lighting control, HVAC integration and data that can serve applications such as asset tracking, wayfinding and optimizing energy management and space use.

The lighting market remains bright. Once a staid part of the electrical industry, lighting has undergone a massive shift in technology and become more dynamic. While prevailing opportunity is not as simple nor easy as in recent years, opportunities abound in 2026.

stock.adobe.com / edwardolive