American electricity consumption is on the rise, a trend that is not surprising.

However, the sector driving that growth is noteworthy. For the first time in history, commercial consumption has surpassed the residential sector

According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook, published in May 2026 by the U.S. Energy Information Agency, U.S. electricity consumption is projected to reach almost 4,250 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2026. That would be a 1.3% increase from 2025.

The same forecast projects consumption to grow another 3.1% in 2027.

The EIA explains that, historically, it has been the residential sector driving electricity consumption in the nation. But this year marks a turning point.

According to the EIA, residential electricity sales will only grow by 0.5% in 2026 and again in 2027.

Meanwhile, sales to the commercial sector will grow by 2.2% in 2026 and by another 5.3% in 2027.

As a result, the two sectors will experience a convergence. The EIA projects both sectors to consume about the same amount of electricity in 2026 at approximately 1,530 billion kWh.
And for the first time in history, in 2027, commercial electricity consumption will surpass the residential sector.

The EIA also notes that a third sector is close on the heels of the two leaders. The industrial sector is forecast to experience 1% growth in 2026 and 4% in 2027 to reach a total of 1,095 billion kWh.

The EIA does not offer an in-depth explanation for the trends, although the role of data centers is evident. The forecast notes that commercial electricity usage includes data center consumption. It adds that increases in electricity demand for both the commercial and industrial sectors is strongest in the West South-Central region, which is “driven by data center and manufacturing growth in the state of Texas.”