If the federal government’s goal is to have between 30 million and 42 million plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) on the road by 2030, then the country needs to have a national network of 26 million to 35 million charging ports, which will cost between $53 million and $127 billion to build. This is according to the Energy Department’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s June 2023 report, “The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure.”

NREL experts analyzed the charging infrastructure required under several PEV adoption scenarios based on varying demand across regions and between urban and rural areas, including the need for charging ports along highways.

For a midadoption scenario of 33 million PEVs, a national network of 28 million ports could consist of:

• 26.8 million privately accessible Level 1 and Level 2 charging ports located at single-family homes, multifamily properties and workplaces
• 182,000 publicly accessible fast-charging ports along highway corridors and in local communities
• 1 million publicly accessible Level 2 charging ports primarily located near homes and workplaces, including in high-density neighborhoods, at office buildings and at retail outlets.

While most near-term fast-charging demand is simulated as being met by 150-kilowatt (kW) DC chargers, advances in battery technology are expected to stimulate demand for higher-power charging, according to the report. The authors estimate that by 2030, DC chargers rated for at least 350 kW will be the most prevalent technology across the national fast-charging network.

The estimated cumulative capital investment includes $22 billion to $72 billion for privately accessible Level 1 and Level 2 charging ports; $27 billion to $44 billion for publicly accessible fast charging ports; and $5 billion to $11 billion for publicly accessible Level 2 charging ports. The cost of grid upgrades and distributed energy resources have been excluded from these estimates.

Existing announcements of charging initiatives put the United States on a path to meet 2030 investment needs, according to the report. As of last March, $23.7 billion of capital has been announced for publicly accessible light-duty PEV charging infrastructure through the end of the decade, including from private firms; the public sector including federal, state and local governments; and electric utilities. Public and private investments in publicly accessible charging infrastructure have accelerated in recent years, and future endeavors may be able to leverage incentives through a variety of programs, including from the Inflation Reduction Act and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

The authors assert that building the charging infrastructure will likely be necessary before demand for charging materializes.

The balance of supply and demand for charging should be closely monitored at the local level and steps should be taken to enable the efficient deployment of charging by minimizing soft costs, including streamlined permitting and utility service connection processes, according to the report.

A future national charging network should be strategic in locating “the right amount of charging, in the right locations, with appropriate charging power,” the authors assert. A reliable infrastructure will be “essential” to boost driver confidence and accelerate widespread adoption of PEVs.

“A successful national charging network will position PEVs to provide a superior driving experience, lower total cost of ownership for drivers, become profitable for industry participants, and enable grid integration, all while meeting U.S. climate goals,” the report’s authors wrote.