Electrification is helping society battle climate change, but at the same time, it is putting extra demands on local grids and introducing new patterns in energy consumption.

The trend is on display in New England, where the regional grid operator is projecting a notable rise in annual energy use over the next decade. The operator is also seeing a significant change in how and when that energy is being consumed.

In early May, the grid operator ISO New England released its annual 10-year forecast for energy loads and transmission. The report “Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT Report),” makes projections through the winter of 2033-34.

ISO New England is the independent system operator for the grid operations that services the six-state region of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine. According to its report, total annual energy use in those states will increase from 119,179 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2024 to 140,001 GWh in 2033. That represents an annual increase of 1.8% per year and a total increase of 17% over the 10-year period.

This increase will occur despite the adoption of energy-efficiency programs and distributed photovoltaic systems, both of which help reduce demand for grid electricity. The report projects efficiency programs to reduce electricity use by approximately 10–11,000 GWh annually over the 10-year period. Similarly, behind-the-meter photovoltaic is projected to reduce grid electricity consumption by more than 5,000 GWh in 2024. That number is expected to increase to nearly 10,000 GWh in 2033.

Two major trends are driving the overall increase in energy consumption. According to the CELT Report, total annual demand from electrification of transportation, or more specifically, the growing adoption of electric vehicles, is expected to increase from 325 GWh in 2024 to 15,182 GWH in 2033.

Similarly, total annual demand from the electrification of heating is expected to increase from 640 GWh in 2024 to 7,996 GWh in 2033.

At the same time, these changing patterns of electricity use are also contributing to a shift in peak demand. Historically, this has occurred during the summer months, when consumers turn up their air conditioners, which are powered by electricity.

Most heating systems were previously powered by gas, so even during the cold months when consumers turn up the heat, the demand for electricity was not affected.

Now, with the electrification of heating systems, peak demand for electricity is increasing in the winter months. According to the CELT Report, peak demand during winter and summer months will be roughly equal by 2033, at about 27,000 MW.