What a difference an election can make. On the eve of 2024’s presidential vote, wind energy production was at record levels. As of late October, wind energy had become the second largest source of carbon-free electricity in the United States, after nuclear power. Falling costs and anticipated tax credits were expected to boost further development. And offshore wind, despite its roller-coaster finances over the last few years, was also a bright spot, with a massive installation planned to begin off Virginia’s coast.

Donald Trump’s election, however, has shifted these improving fortunes significantly. Several of his executive orders have put much of the wind industry on pause, as new political appointees review current leases.

When winds were favorable

Construction of new wind farms had slowed in the 2–3 years leading up to 2024, but even with that slowdown, 2024 figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed capacity up 46% from 2019, and 135% up from a decade earlier. Wind accounted for 12% of U.S. electricity generation in 2023. Industry watchers had seen signs of reinvigorated growth as funding and tax credits defined in 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) began to take effect.

While these figures are primarily for onshore projects, offshore wind development had also been growing, albeit with greater financial hurdles. Currently, construction is continuing at Vineyard Wind off the Massachusetts coast. Although the project aimed to be fully operational by the end of 2024, blade failure on one of the turbines slowed that process. Inspections require 66 previously installed blades to be replaced. 

Farther south, the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project was 50% complete as of February, according to developer Dominion Energy. When operational in late 2026, the 176-­turbine installation will have a capacity of 2.6 gigawatts.

New challenges

Trump came into his second term with an aversion to wind energy. He issued an executive order on his first day in office to halt all new leasing of offshore wind locations on the outer continental shelf. The memorandum also called for “temporary cessation and immediate review of federal wind leasing and siting practices” for onshore and offshore projects.

This pause will affect even those onshore developers working on private property. Such projects still require federal permits from agencies such as the Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Bureau of Land Management and the Federal Aviation Administration, all of which could stall or deny developers’ ability to move forward. These projects also could face headwinds if Republicans are successful in cutting IRA tax credits. While projects deemed under construction by the end of 2024 would still be covered, companies backing efforts still in the planning stages now don’t know if their previous financial plans will hold.

Economic impacts

Halting new wind farm construction comes with a range of potential costs, short-term and long-term, for ratepayers, local communities and national and global participants in the wind energy supply chain. 

For ratepayers, wind offers a less expensive option for electricity operation, with fixed expenditures into the future. In 2023, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that wind-based power purchase agreements generally ran around $26 per megawatt-hour (MWh), versus $28 per MWh for a natural gas combined-cycle plan, based on the price of gas at that time. Wind offers predictability in terms of future fuel costs as well.

Local communities benefit from the jobs wind developments create during construction and ongoing local property tax payments. Supply chains supporting wind farm construction stretch nationally, for components including the monopoles supporting the turbines, turbine blades, internal generator machinery and, in the case of offshore wind, the specialized ships used to deliver and install materials.

Political concerns

While Trump has long argued for slowing or eliminating wind energy development, forcing a halt now could be problematic. The four top states for wind production—Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas—are all solidly Republican. And the offshore wind group Oceantic Network estimates more than 64% of offshore wind manufacturing and supply-chain investments, announced or already made, are in Republican congressional districts.

In August, 18 House Republicans provided a sign of the opposition Trump could face as he seeks to block wind energy progress. The representatives stood up in support of the IRA tax credits that support wind and other renewable technologies, arguing these benefits spurred investments and jobs in their districts. Now those Republicans could be the ones best positioned to defend that support as energy policy debates continue.

Mark_gusev / stock.adobe.com